Riverwood Presbyterian Church

Politics

41% and 2012

by Clay Staggs

I haven’t opined on politics in awhile. And, I probably should just quit talking about it because my track record stinks. (I did predict that this fall we’d see HRC v. Rudy, after all.) However, it’s like watching a train wreck - I just can’t look away.

So, yesterday, HRC crushed Obama by 41 percentage points in West Virginia. Ouch. Here’s a little statistic for you: The Democrats haven’t elected a president without WV since 1916. Winning only 26% (!) of the Democrat vote hardly leads one to believe that he can carry the state in November.

Yet, Obama’s lead in pledged delegates is insurmountable now, and the superdelegates seem content to follow the will of the voters (leaving the question of purpose of the superdelegates in the first place wide open). So Obama will be the nominee. Why’s HRC doing what she’s doing then?

I believe that Charles Hurt has hit the nail on the head: She’s setting up an I-told-you-so for 2012. She must truly expect Obama to lose in November (and, knowing the Clintons’ m.o., will work diligently behind the scenes to ensure it). Then, next cycle, she can plausibly say that she warned the party that you can’t write off working class white voters (like those in WV) and expect to win. Then, she can coast to the nomination to run against McCain.

Is this the stuff of conspiracy theorists? Maybe. But maybe it’s just crazy enough to be true.

Where is that tinfoil hat?