Riverwood Presbyterian Church

Politics

State of the Race

by Clay Staggs

It’s been a while since I opined on the presidential race, and much has changed since then. So, here goes:

The Democrats first. Boy oh boy did HRC and Obama go after each other last night in that debate. Here’s the video in case you missed it.

As a Republican, that’s just about the best thing that’s happened this campaign season. The Dems are on the verge of doing something historically stupid: fracturing their coalition. Hillary (Bill too, for that matter) is insulting Obama, and for some reason that I can’t divine. She’s the frontrunner. It makes her look desperate, and it looks like she’s picking on the first viable minority candidate for president. Minority voters don’t seem to like this too much, even if they’re not inclined to vote for Obama in the first place. The demographics of the Democrat party are such that without MAJOR support from minorities, they can’t win. I think the Clintons may wind up splitting the party to secure her nomination.

Oh, and this picture (running in the NY Post and on Drudge) of Bill snoozing at a MLK celebration while MLK III is speaking can’t help either:

Now, for the GOP. Fred Thompson is out. Because Huckabee didn’t win in South Carolina, it is now apparent that he will not be the nominee. After all, if a southern evangelical can’t win there, where can he win?

That leaves Rudy, Romney, and McCain. I have always thought that Rudy would be the nominee. I am beginning to wonder, though. Rudy made a very explicit strategic decision not to compete in any primary until Florida, which votes on Jan. 29. Given how muddled the field is, this could be seen as brilliant, since there’s no clear frontrunner, and he’s conserved his resources for the truly large delegate-rich states. On the other hand, all the press has been talking about lately are Romney, Huckabee, and McCain, since they’ve actually been competing. The other downside for Rudy is that if he loses Florida, which he acknowledges is his firewall, can he continue?

We should learn a lot from Florida. It is open only to registered Republicans. Crossover independents in NH and SC have benefited McCain tremendously. He will not have that advantage in Florida. Moreover, Florida is a winner-take-all state in awarding delegates to the Republican convention.

So, if Rudy wins, it will likely take the wind out of McCain’s sails (both of them appealing to moderate and swing voters and national security-minded voters), and validate Rudy’s strategy. Rudy will be hailed as a strategic genius and his candidacy reinvigorated. If Romney wins, he will begin to amass a large lead in delegates (he already leads all other candidates), and can rightly claim to have defeated McCain and Rudy in a true test among Republicans. It would also demonstrate that Romney can win in the South. If McCain wins, Rudy is sunk, and we have a two-man race between McCain and Romney, which McCain will likely win on momentum and favorable mainstream press coverage.

So, all eyes on Florida. It should be an interesting week.